The world is at risk of surpassing 1.5°C of global warming unless governments, businesses, and regional authorities strengthen their climate commitments, new research indicates.

As New York Climate Week begins, multiple studies have been released assessing progress toward the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping temperature increases below this crucial threshold. Scientists warn that exceeding 1.5°C could trigger irreversible climate tipping points.

A report by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) and the University of Oxford examined the climate strategies of 198 nations, 708 regional governments, 1,186 cities, and nearly 2,000 publicly traded companies. Their latest Net Zero Stocktake revealed that over 40% of local and regional authorities still lack emissions reduction targets.

According to the Net Zero Tracker database, only 26% of states and regions (185 out of 708) have set net zero targets. Among cities, 23% (271 out of 1,186) have made similar commitments, with most coming from high-income nations. The report highlights that this lack of alignment between local, regional, and national goals is hindering the transition to a low-carbon economy.

The analysis also found that corporate climate action remains inadequate. Out of 1,145 companies assessed, just 61 met the minimum standards of integrity for net zero targets, meaning their climate pledges are considered both fair and credible.

Camilla Hyslop, data lead for the Net Zero Tracker at the University of Oxford, emphasized the risks of inaction: “Many organizations continue to sit on the sidelines, exposing their home nations and supply chains to significant transition risks. Encouraging rigorous climate commitments from companies and subnational governments would bolster national climate policies.”

Meanwhile, the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG), an independent panel of experts from ten countries, is calling for a broader approach to climate targets. Their new report urges nations to monitor greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere as a real-time indicator of climate change, arguing that current global temperature assessments fail to capture the accelerating pace of warming.

The report also calls for far greater ambition in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the climate action plans countries submit to the United Nations. CCAG chair Sir David King warned: “The current trajectory of rising global temperatures is leading humanity toward catastrophe. Nations must maximize their NDCs to ensure they are as ambitious and comprehensive as possible while addressing the needs of developing countries fairly.”

In a separate analysis, PwC’s Net Zero Economy Index highlights the growing urgency of decarbonization. The report found that to meet the 1.5°C target, global carbon intensity—the measure of emissions per unit of economic output—must now fall by 20.4% annually, up from 17.2% last year. This rate is twenty times faster than the global decarbonization pace achieved in 2023.

Since 2000, no G20 nation has achieved a single-year decarbonization rate above 11.5%, the report noted. Moreover, rising energy demand continues to outpace the expansion of renewable energy, keeping fossil fuel consumption high.

Despite a record-breaking 14% increase in global renewable energy capacity in 2023 (reaching 3,870 gigawatts), fossil fuel consumption also rose by 1.5%, hitting 16,007 gigawatts.

Emma Cox, PwC’s global climate leader, underscored the need for immediate action: “Without bold and decisive steps, we risk overshooting the 1.5°C threshold, with increasingly severe consequences. The gap between climate goals and real-world action is widening, and without global cooperation, the chance of maintaining safe warming limits will vanish.”